Kelly Criterion Calculator

Determine your optimal trade size to mathematically guarantee exponential bankroll growth while making zero chance of bankruptcy using the legendary Kelly Criterion.

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Determine your optimal trade size to mathematically guarantee exponential bankroll growth while making zero chance of bankruptcy using the legendary Kelly Criterion.

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How to Use Kelly Criterion Calculator in 3 Easy Steps

1

Step 1

Rigorously analyze a deep sample size of your past trades to uncover your genuine Win Rate Percentage.

2

Step 2

Calculate the exact average dollar amount you make on winners divided by the average dollar loss on losers to establish your Reward-to-Risk.

3

Step 3

Choose your volatility threshold (Half-Kelly is strongly recommended for human psychology) to instantly map your maximum allowable risk per trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

No strategy prevents losing trades. However, if your inputs (Win Rate and Ratio) are genuinely accurate, and you strictly obey the Kelly output percentage, it becomes mathematically impossible to reduce your bankroll to absolute zero.

A negative Kelly percentage means your "strategy" lacks a mathematical edge. Do not take the trade. The numbers dictate you are gambling against a statistically stacked house, and execution will lead to ruin.

Hedge funds command billions of dollars and act as fiduciaries managing severe institutional risk mandates. Quarter-Kelly generates exceptionally smooth, positive compounding equity curves with zero terrifying multi-year drawdowns.

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